At Progressive Field, the Minnesota Twins' struggles continued as they squandered a three-run lead, ultimately falling 4-3 to the Cleveland Guardians. This crushing defeat saw Griffin Jax give up a decisive two-run homer to Kyle Manzardo in the bottom of the eighth inning, further adding to the Twins’ woes in an already challenging season.
"Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking," lamented Pablo López. "Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow."
In their last 27 games, the Twins have endured 18 losses, casting doubts over their postseason ambitions. Despite clinging to the third AL wild-card spot, their cushion has narrowed to just 1 1/2 games. FanGraphs had once placed their postseason odds at 95.4% as of September 5, but those hopes have dwindled to 76.4% amid their current slump.
Their offensive struggles are glaring; in 12 of those 27 games, Minnesota has failed to score more than three runs. The team has been batting a paltry .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage during this stretch. The bases-empty scenario has been particularly problematic, with the Twins hitting .272, ranking them fourth worst in the league in such situations.
Manager Rocco Baldelli expressed his frustration, stating, "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together."
The bullpen, which once carried a respectable 3.84 ERA and ranked tenth in the league in win probability added (+3.41) over the first 123 games, has faltered significantly in recent games. Over their last 27 games, the bullpen's ERA ballooned to 5.47, and they now hold a league-worst -2.75 win probability added. Griffin Jax's recent comments underline the toll this has taken: "It's pretty heartbreaking. We're kind of running on fumes as a staff."
The starting rotation hasn't fared much better, posting a 6.07 ERA during the last 27 games and averaging only 4.38 innings per start. The Twins have held leads in the seventh inning or later in five of their last 18 losses and were tied in the seventh inning or later on two other occasions. The grueling schedule, which saw them play 17 games in the last 18 days, has undoubtedly taxed their pitching resources and overall resilience.
Amid these challenges, a glimmer of hope comes with the expected return of Max Kepler and the recent acquisition of left-handed pitcher Cole Irvin from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin brings with him a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances, potentially providing the depth the Twins sorely need. Derek Falvey, the team's chief baseball officer, emphasized the importance of this move, saying, "We were thinking, how do we lengthen out what we already have? He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help."
The Twins face increasing pressure from teams hot on their heels. Both the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners are just two games behind in the standings, although the Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both competitors. The Tigers, in particular, have been formidable, going 23-10 in their last 33 games.
Despite the grim outlook, there have been bright spots. Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have shown flashes of their potential this month, combining to go 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer. Yet, as Baldelli aptly put it, "We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we're going to do this." His sentiment underscores the urgency and necessity for a collective response to salvage their postseason aspirations.
With so much at stake, the Minnesota Twins must recalibrate and find their form rapidly. As López aptly summarized the predicament, "Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking." The days ahead will indeed be crucial as they battle to keep their postseason dreams alive.