The Giants Opt Not to Franchise Saquon Barkley: A Strategic Data-Driven Decision

In a strategic decision that reflects broader trends across the NFL, the New York Giants have opted not to franchise running back Saquon Barkley for the second consecutive year. This decision has sparked a mix of responses from fans and insiders alike.

Sources indicate that the reluctance to re-sign Barkley was not due to a lack of respect for the player’s abilities. Instead, it was a calculated move by Giants management. General manager Joe Schoen highlighted the importance of getting the best value for their investments, noting, "Bang for your buck."

Financial Strategy and Positional Priorities

Owner John Mara expressed a preference to keep the star running back, but financial considerations and positional priorities ultimately influenced Barkley’s departure. Schoen and his team made a tactical decision to delay acquiring a running back until the second week of free agency, expecting that Barkley might not command a high salary in a competitive market.

The Philadelphia Eagles, however, saw an opportunity and secured Barkley with a deal worth $12.5 million per season over three years. This turn of events has prompted discussions about the value and longevity of running backs in today's game.

Data-Driven Decision Making

Schoen relied heavily on performance data relating to running backs' ages, pointing out, "The data says that running backs decline at 27." Historically, running backs have often seen a dip in production around this age, and Schoen's approach reflects a growing trend in the NFL: hesitating to offer large contracts to players approaching this threshold.

For instance, while Christian McCaffrey faced his age-27 season in 2023, other prominent running backs tell a varied story. Frank Gore excelled into his 30s, but Derrick Henry has shown a decline in yards per carry, despite maintaining impressive yards per game. Conversely, Aaron Jones has seen his performance improve post-27, complicating the narrative.

The Weight of Wear and Tear

Another critical factor in the Giants' decision was Barkley's workload. During his college career at Penn State, Barkley amassed 900 carries. Since joining the NFL, he has endured six physically demanding seasons. These years of heavy usage have taken a toll on Barkley, contributing to the Giants' apprehension about committing significant long-term financial resources. Schoen's stance is clear: “Historically, running backs have often seen a dip in production around this age.”

While Barkley's departure marks a significant shift in the Giants' roster, it also underscores a broader league-wide trend. Teams are weighing the potential decline in running back performance post-27 more heavily in their roster-building strategies. The case of Saquon Barkley demonstrates how teams navigate the fine line between securing talent and managing financial prudence.

As the NFL continues to evolve, the reliance on data-driven decisions will likely become even more pronounced. For now, Giants fans can only look forward and hope that the team’s calculated risks pay off in the seasons to come.