A Grim Statistical History
Teams that go up 3-0 in a best-of-seven Stanley Cup Final have historically been almost unbeatable, winning 27 of 28 series. The only exception was in 1942, when the Toronto Maple Leafs staged an unprecedented comeback to defeat the Detroit Red Wings.
Of those 28 series, a staggering 20 ended in sweeps. The Florida Panthers are attempting to secure a sweep in the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since the Red Wings eliminated the Washington Capitals in four games back in 1998. Even if the Edmonton Oilers manage to extend the series with a Game 4 win, it is worth noting that 25 of those 28 series concluded in no more than five games.
Despite these daunting odds, the Oilers maintain their belief in a turnaround.
Oilers' Current Struggles
The Oilers have struggled mightily against the Panthers this season, going 0-5-0. Game 3 provided a glimmer of hope as Edmonton managed to score two greasy goals in the third period, thanks to Philip Broberg and Ryan McLeod, reducing Florida's lead to 4-3. However, the critical takeaway from Game 3 was that the Oilers were trailing 4-1 entering the third period—on home ice, no less—in a must-win game against a team that boasts a plus-15 goal differential in the final frame during the postseason.
Their undoing unraveled during a dismal 6:19 stretch in the second period when Florida scored three goals. Edmonton had just leveled the score at 1-all with a breakaway goal by Warren Foegele, igniting the home crowd at 9:12 before a turnover by Stuart Skinner allowed Eetu Luostarinen to set up Vladimir Tarasenko for a goal, deflating the arena's energy.
Florida capitalized on a solid forechecking effort by Matthew Tkachuk, forcing a Darnell Nurse turnover that Sam Bennett snapped into the net for his seventh goal of the playoffs, putting the Panthers up 3-1 at 13:57. Aleksander Barkov capped the scoring for Florida at 15:31, converting a 2-on-1 chance stemming from deep inside Edmonton's attacking zone.
The Stars Fail to Shine
Edmonton's key players have struggled to make an impact. While Foegele, Broberg, McLeod, and Mattias Ekholm have found the back of the net, the Oilers’ leading scorers—Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, and defenseman Evan Bouchard—have yet to score in the series.
Remarkably, these five players also anchor Edmonton's power play, which has been effectively neutralized by Florida's penalty kill. The Panthers' penalty kill is 10-for-10 this series, stifling an Oilers power play that had been converting at over 37% rate in the postseason. While McDavid has contributed with assists on three of Edmonton's four goals in the series, the Oilers captain is on pace to join an exclusive club with Wayne Gretzky as the only players since 1967-68 to record a point on at least half of their team's goals in the postseason. Yet, the other key Oilers have yet to register a point in the Stanley Cup Final.
Taking Responsibility
The Oilers’ star players acknowledge their underperformance. "Yeah, it's very frustrating, of course. I pride myself on being good in the playoffs and playing well and just can't seem to get anything going. So yeah, I obviously have to look in the mirror and try to be better," Draisaitl admitted.
He continued, "We shot ourselves in the foot a little bit today. Made some individual and collective mistakes that they immediately took advantage of."
Goalie Stuart Skinner reflected on the precarious position the Oilers are in, saying, "It is disappointing being down 3-0. We've got to let that reality sink in. I'm not too sure what the stats are on coming back in it, but if anyone can do it, it's the Oil."
Head Coach Kris Knoblauch echoed that sentiment: "I think we've shown that we can beat this team. I think there's a lot of belief in that. It's not like we're getting outplayed and we're just saying, 'That team's better than us.' We can string together a lot of wins. We've shown it. I don't think there's any doubt in our room." He added, "There's frustration that we're down, but there's a difference between frustration and quitting. There's absolutely no quit. There's a belief that we can do this, so we just need to keep pushing."
Skinner recounted the turning point in Game 3: "After they got that second one, they just kind of got on a roll. We let them take that momentum and stride with it. They got two more quick ones. Just kind of silly mistakes that don't need to happen."
Draisaitl remained resolute: "We're a good offensive team. They're doing a good job, but we're still getting our looks. It's just when you're chasing the game for a big chunk of the night, it's hard to come back. It's a steep hill right now, obviously. No choice but to take it one game at a time. Try and get one win in Game 4 and go from there."